Eliminate the Losers

In every horse race, there are animals that have no business being in the race.

The owners choose such a race simply to fill out the field and make the racing secretary happy. Sometimes they run their horse to exercise it for an upcoming race. Whatever the reason, the horse has little or no chance of winning.

One of the smartest strategies in choosing a selection to wager on is to define the conditions of the race. Some races are simply not set up for most of the horses to run. A racing secretary, for example, might stipulate that the race is for 'non-winners of any races except maidens and claimers for less than $10,000.' If you find a horse in the race that has won regularly in $25,000 claiming or allowance races, that should be a definite tip-off that this animal is a contender.

A lot of handicappers do not take those conditions into consideration and that is a serious mistake.

Begin your handicapping by eliminating the horses that don't seem to have a chance. Out of a field of 10 horses, you should be able to eliminate six or seven, leaving just three or four horses for you to handicap.

If a horse has been on the sidelines for a long time (say over six months) and its works are not exceptional, you can throw out that four-legged creature as a win possibility. This makes your selection much easier.

An odds-on horse at 3-5 would be another throw-away. Why bet money for such a small return on your investment. When you are down to two selections, that is when you can get serious about making a wager.

If you have a choice between two horses, lean to the one with the best jockey or trainer. Look at the percentage of wins for the jockey/trainer and act accordingly. If the horse has had a recent good workout, so much the better.

Somebody once said you can beat a race but not the races. That is wise advice. It's fun to watch thoroughbreds run, but a lot harder to win when you bet on too many races.

Then there is body language. Bonnie Ledbetter, a trainer at Turf Paradise who lived in Phoenix, AZ., wrote a wonderful book, 'The Body Language of Horses.' She took the position that a horse revealed its potential for winning by its body language. Pick up a used copy of Bonnie's book and study it. You'll learn a lot.

In it, she compares thoroughbred horses to athletes. If you saw an overweight athlete running in a sprint or a mile race, you surely would not bet on that runner to win. Same is true of horses.

A horse that looks lack-luster or breaks out into a sweat probably is not going to run a good race. A horse that has its neck gracefully arched and marches up to the starting gate with its coat shining and looking to be the proper weight and formation will probably run a good race.

If a horse is reluctant to enter the starting gate, it is telling you, 'I don't wanna run,' and you had better accept that message.

Eliminate the losers. Accentuate the winners. You will be miles ahead of the game and your bankroll will thank you.

Author: Geno Lawrenzi Jr.

(Geno Lawrenzi Jr. is an international journalist, magazine author and ghostwriter and poker player who lives in Phoenx, AZ. He has published 2,000 articles in 50 magazines and 125 newspapers. If you want to share a gambling story or book idea with him, send an email to glawrenzi@gmail.com ).