UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifying: Wales vs Croatia preview

Croatia are looking to consolidate their place at the top of UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifying group E when they visit Wales at Cardiff City Stadium on Sunday. The reverse fixture was won by Croatia 2-1 in June, they had a two-goal lead after 48 minutes and managed to stay ahead until the end of the game. Wales have never beaten Croatia in an official match, the head to head record currently shows four wins for Croatia in the last four matches and a draw in a friendly in 2002. 

Wales are in a pretty desperate situation, even though they do have a game in hand on Croatia, Slovakia and Hungary. That game in hand is against Azerbaijan, and in theory Wales should win it and have the same number of points as second-placed Slovakia and three less than leaders Croatia. However, they  only managed to get a 1-1 draw in Slovakia last week, and if they lose against Croatia they will fall far behind in the qualification race. Juventus star Aaron Ramsey didn't make the trip to Slovakia but he should be able to play in Sunday's game. 

Croatia are at the top of the group table after six games, but they had quite a few moments of weakness so far, especially away from home. First they lost 2-1 in Hungary in March, and in September they only managed to grab a 1-1 draw at group minnows Azerbaijan. Last week they got their revenge over Hungary with a 3-0 victory in Split. Inter midfielder Marcelo Brozovic is suspended for this match, while Matej Mitrovic is injured. 

Probable line-ups: 

Wales: Hennessey - Roberts, Lockyer, Rodon, Davies - Allen, Morrell - Bale, Ramsey, James - Moore

Croatia: Livakovic - Jedvaj, Lovren, Vida, Barisic - Modric, Kovacic, Rakitic - Rebic, Petkovic, Perisic

My prediction: 

Croatia have the better players and they have proven to be in good form against Hungary, but they might be in trouble again away from home. That said, I think that Wales are too weak to win the match, so probably Croatia will grab a 2-1 win and seal their qualification. 

Here are the odds for the match at NetBet: 

Wales win - 2.90

Draw - 3.25

Croatia win - 2.50